Population, Skills and Long-Term Demand: The Intergenerational Report for Professionals Eyeing Australia

News · 2026-09-28 · 4 min read

For professionals already working in Dubai, Doha or Riyadh and weighing a move from the UAE to Australia, few documents say more about long-term demand than the Intergenerational Report (IGR). Every three years, the federal government uses it to project Australian life 40 years into the future. The latest edition makes one conclusion plain: future growth will rely heavily on people who decide to make Australia home.

A Shrinking Birth Rate, a Growing Population

Australian families are getting smaller. The IGR expects the fertility rate to drop to 1.34 births per woman by 2065–66, considerably lower than the 1.62 used in the previous report. In the 2060s, deaths are projected to exceed births for the first time.

Despite this, the population is still expected to reach 39.3 million by 2065–66. Net overseas migration accounts for the gap, with the report assuming an average of 235,000 people a year over the long term. According to the report, this gives Australia "demographic resilience" relative to Germany, Italy and South Korea, where deaths already outnumber births.

The Age Advantage of New Arrivals

A recent migrant has a median age of around 26, the report notes, against 38 for the existing resident population. That difference goes a long way to explaining why Australia's working-age population (15 to 64) is expected to keep expanding while many similar economies contract.

Ageing across the population remains a major trend:

Median age is projected to rise from 38.6 to 45 by 2062–63.
Australians aged 65+ will almost double in number.
Those aged 85+ will almost triple.

A larger older population brings greater demand for health and aged care, and those roles need people to fill them.

Four Forces Reshaping Skills Demand

The IGR points to several shifts that will change the economy, each linked to particular skills:

Care and support services. An older population lifts demand for nurses, aged care workers, allied health professionals and disability support staff.
Moving to clean energy. Under a net zero target of 2050, Australia aims to become a "renewable energy superpower" through critical minerals, green hydrogen and green metals, which calls for engineers, technicians, trades and project specialists.
AI and the digital shift. The report describes the effects of artificial intelligence as still uncertain, but expects it to change how work is done and which skills are valued most.
Services at the centre. Growth is expected to keep moving toward services, favouring professional, technical and client-facing capabilities.

Living Standards Over the Coming Decades

Annual growth is projected to ease from about 3% to about 2%, mainly because of ageing. Even so, the economy is expected to be more than twice its present size by 2065–66, with real per capita income 55% higher. Life expectancy is forecast at 89.5 years for women and 86.1 for men.

For anyone considering a career move, this points to a stable, prosperous economy with a strong public health system and long life expectancy. The report is also candid about strains, including housing affordability for younger Australians and growing government spending.

An Assumption, Not a Guarantee

The 235,000 figure is a modelling assumption rather than a commitment. Both the Opposition and One Nation have said they would seek substantially lower migration levels if they won office. Migration settings, visa categories and priorities can all shift with a change of government or budget.

That makes timing and preparation important. Occupation lists and rules change, so relying on current information and a carefully prepared application can genuinely matter.

Turning the Projections Into Your Next Move

For experienced professionals looking at Australia jobs from Dubai or elsewhere in the Gulf, the report underlines a few sensible principles:

Look beyond today's shortages. Focus on the areas where the report expects lasting need, such as care, energy and technology.
Expect policy to change. Confirm current visa requirements instead of relying on rules that applied in the past.
Begin preparing early. Skills assessments, English tests and paperwork all take time.

A considered career step built on long-term demand, rather than short-term headlines, is likely to stand up best as settings evolve.

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